The Power of Strategic Simulations in an Age of Uncertainty For most of modern history, strategy has been an exercise in educated guesswork. Leaders gathered data, debated assumptions, extrapolated trends, and committed resources based on what they believed was most likely to happen next. When environments were stable and change was incremental, this approach worked well enough. Today, it is fundamentally insufficient. The defining feature of the contemporary strategic enviro

Introduction: A Tool Built for a World That No Longer Exists Scenario planning was once among the most sophisticated tools available to senior leaders. Developed in the mid-20th century and refined through the work of thinkers such as Herman Kahn at RAND and Pierre Wack at Royal Dutch Shell, it represented a breakthrough: a disciplined way to imagine multiple plausible futures rather than betting on a single forecast. For decades, it helped organizations navigate oil shocks,